National defers tax cuts until 2028/29 surplus, puts debt first

New Zealand's National Party has ruled out income tax cuts for the next parliamentary term, with finance spokesperson Nicola Willis confirming on Monday that tax relief will only be considered once the government's books return to surplus — currently forecast for 2028/29.

Willis unveiled a four-year fiscal plan in Wellington targeting a NZ$4 billion operating surplus in 2028/29, growing to NZ$11.7 billion by 2030/31, while net core Crown debt peaks at 43.9% of GDP in 2027/28 before falling to 39.5%. The plan allocates NZ$15.4 billion to health — 88% of all National election commitments — funded partly by roughly NZ$1 billion in spending cuts, including a NZ$431.2 million reduction to foreign aid and NZ$583 million from welfare.

With the election set for 7 November, Willis framed the debt-first approach as protecting future generations from larger bills and giving the country a bigger buffer against global shocks, while accusing Labour of proposing nine new taxes costing households NZ$2,263 annually.

Debt peak 2027/28

43.9% of GDP Net core Crown debt peaks at 43.9% of GDP in 2027/28, then falls to 39.5% by 2030/31.1News

Operating surplus target

NZ$4bn (2028/29) Operating surplus of NZ$4bn targeted for 2028/29, growing to NZ$11.7bn by 2030/31 — the trigger for any tax relief.RNZ

Health investment

NZ$15.4bn / 88% NZ$15.4bn over four years for health; health makes up 88% of all National election commitments.RNZ1News

Spending cuts

~NZ$1bn NZ$431.2m cut to foreign aid and NZ$583m from welfare within roughly NZ$1bn total spending reduction.1News