What happened
IMD forecasts a low-pressure area over the east-central Bay of Bengal to intensify into a cyclonic storm over west-central waters by the morning of Monday, October 26, 2026.
Why it matters
Very heavy rain hits coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam from Tuesday, October 27, while Tamil Nadu already faces an orange alert through October 26, with winds reaching 50 km/h.
Remember this
Coastal Andhra gets one day of warning before landfall.
More context & who is affected
The system began as a weak low-pressure area, which developed over the east-central Bay of Bengal around 5:30 a.m. on Friday, October 23, fuelled by upper-air cyclonic circulation already in place. IMD's cyclone warning centre forecasts that it will strengthen across Sunday and Monday, then form as a cyclonic storm over west-central waters before Monday, October 26, dawns.
Once organised, it is expected to progress toward north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining southern Odisha shoreline. Very heavy rain then falls on coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, starting Tuesday, October 27, and continuing into Wednesday.
The rainfall threat is already active across other parts of the region. Orange alerts cover Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal through October 26, forecasting heavy to very heavy rain of 115.6-204.4 mm at isolated places plus thunderstorms and winds reaching 40-50 km/h. Yellow alert zones include Kerala, Mahe, Andhra Pradesh and South Interior Karnataka.
- Cyclonic storm expected
- 26 Oct 2026 (morning) Low-pressure area expected to become a cyclonic storm over west-central Bay of Bengal waters.NDTV ProfitThe Hindu
- Tamil Nadu rainfall range
- 115.6-204.4 mm Heavy rain at isolated places across Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal until October 26.NDTV Profit
- States on heavy-rain watch
- 9+ states and UTs Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe, Coastal Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Odisha.The Hindu
Timeline
- Fri, Oct 23 — Low-pressure area forms over east-central Bay of Bengal around 5:30 a.m. IST, under an upper-air cyclonic circulation.
- Sun-Mon, Oct 24-25 — IMD forecasts strengthening to Depression then Deep Depression.
- Mon, Oct 26 — Cyclonic storm expected over west-central Bay of Bengal.
- Tue-Wed, Oct 27-28 — Very heavy rain on Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam.
Fishermen · General Public
A cyclonic storm is expected over the west-central Bay of Bengal by October 26, putting coastal Andhra and south Odisha in the direct path.
General Public · Commuters
Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal face 115.6-204.4 mm rainfall with thunderstorms and 40-50 km/h winds until October 26.
Commuters · Fishermen
Very heavy rain over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam from October 27 could disrupt ports, fishing and land transport.
Reporting fromNDTV Profit ↗The Hindu ↗India Meteorological Department ↗
Sources & verification3 sources · 4 claims
These are the records behind this briefing. Linked reporting is not the same as independent confirmation.
- NDTV ProfitReporting
Heavy rain alert for Tamil Nadu, Karnataka; IMD warns of cyclonic storm on October 26 ↗
Published Oct 23, 2026 · Accessed Oct 24, 2026 - The HinduReporting
Cyclonic storm likely by October 26; heavy rain in Coastal Andhra from October 27: IMD ↗
Published Oct 23, 2026 · Accessed Oct 24, 2026 - India Meteorological DepartmentOfficial
All India Weather Forecast Bulletin (issued 20:58 IST, 23 Oct 2026) ↗
Published Oct 23, 2026 · Accessed Oct 24, 2026
Claims and linked sources
IMD forecasts a low-pressure area over the east-central and adjoining south-east Bay of Bengal to intensify into a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal by the morning of Monday, October 26, 2026.
The cyclonic storm is forecast to move towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts, bringing very heavy rainfall to Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam from October 27.
IMD has issued an orange alert for isolated very heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal until October 26, with 115.6-204.4 mm at isolated places and winds of 40-50 km/h.
Yellow alerts for isolated heavy rainfall have been issued over Kerala, Mahe, Andhra Pradesh and South Interior Karnataka, with heavy rainfall very likely over Coastal Karnataka as well.
