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Retail Inflation Hits 4.82% in August as Food, Fuel Prices Surge

CPI retail inflation crossed 4% for the third straight month in August, WPI stayed above 9% for fourth month — RBI under pressure to hike rates in October.

01 / What happened

What happened

CPI rose to 4.82% from 4.45% in July, food inflation 5.95%, WPI 9.92% — all released by MoSPI on 14 Sep 2026

India's CPI-based retail inflation rose to 4.82% in August 2026 from 4.45% in July, the third consecutive month above the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target, government data released on September 14 showed. CPI food inflation climbed to 5.95% from 5.52%, led by silver jewellery (+107.11%), ginger (+73.82%), onion (+48.27%), garlic (+43.60%) and gold/diamond/platinum jewellery (+35.53%).

The Wholesale Price Index posted 9.92% inflation in August, up from 9.78% in July — its fourth straight month above 9% and the second-highest in the 2022-23 base series. WPI fuel and power jumped to 22.93% from 20.05%, with mineral oils +38.48% and crude petroleum & natural gas +34.41%. Minerals oils, food articles, basic metals and chemicals were the broad drivers across groups.

RBI's FY 2026-27 CPI projection stands at 5.0% (Q2 4.7%, Q3 5.9%, Q4 5.5%) within its 2%-6% statutory band, but the trend is toward the upper bound. SBI Research now advocates 25 bps in October and another 25 bps in December; India Ratings expects WPI to reach 10.2% in September unless the West Asia crisis resolves. ICRA's Rahul Agrawal sees food inflation hardening further in Sept-Oct on unfavourable bases and sugar, risking festive sentiment.

CPI retail inflation (Aug 2026)Up from 4.45% in July; third consecutive month above RBI's 4% target.
4.82%
Food inflation (Aug 2026)CPI food component rose from 5.52% in July; key driver of the retail uptick.
5.95%
Timeline

Timeline

  • 14 Sep 2026 — MoSPI released CPI/WPI August 2026 data
  • SBI Research advocated 25 bps hike in October, 25 bps in December
  • India Ratings expects WPI to hit 10.2% in September 2026
Key Numbers

Key Numbers

  • CPI 4.82% | Food CPI 5.95% | WPI 9.92% | Fuel WPI 22.93%
What Next

What Next

  • October MPC meeting — RBI to decide on rate hike amid sticky inflation
  • September WPI print expected at 10.2% per India Ratings
02 / Why it matters

Why it matters for me

RBI faces mounting rate-hike pressure with SBI Research calling for 50 bps of hikes across October-December, household grocery bills rising

Daily Life · Money

Price-change · Direct · High

General Public

Higher food prices at 5.95% food CPI directly raise household grocery bills, with silver, ginger, onion and garlic among the biggest monthly jumps.

Money · Work

Restriction · Direct · High

Policy Watchers · Business Executives

With CPI above 4% for three straight months and WPI near 10%, RBI faces growing pressure to hike rates in the October MPC — borrowing costs for businesses and consumers could rise.

Work · Money

Financial-loss · Indirect · Medium

Business Executives

WPI fuel at 22.93% and elevated wholesale inflation across metals and chemicals raise input costs for manufacturers, squeezing margins through festive season.

03 / The one thing

What to remember

The one thing
Third month above RBI's 4% target means monetary easing is off the table for now — the October MPC meeting is the next checkpoint.

India's retail inflation hit 4.82% in August, WPI 9.92% — RBI rate hike odds rise as food and fuel drive the surge.

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Verified sources (4)

Evidence behind the crack
Reporting/The Hindu

Retail inflation rises to 4.82% in August

PrimaryPublished Sep 14, 2026Accessed Sep 15, 2026
Reporting/WION

India's WPI inflation hits 9.92% as CPI rises to 4.82%; will RBI hike rates?

CorroboratingPublished Sep 14, 2026Accessed Sep 15, 2026
Reporting/The New Indian Express

WPI inflation rises to 9.92% in August on costlier food, fuel, manufactured items

CorroboratingPublished Sep 14, 2026Accessed Sep 15, 2026
Official/Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)

CPI and WPI Index Numbers release for August 2026 (data cited by The Hindu, WION, NIE)

ContextPublished Sep 14, 2026Accessed Sep 15, 2026

Claims and linked sources

10 claims
NumberVerifiedHigh confidence

India's CPI-based retail inflation rose to 4.82% in August 2026 from 4.45% in July, marking the third consecutive month above the RBI's 4% target.

Linked evidence
NumberVerifiedHigh confidence

CPI food inflation increased to 5.95% in August 2026 from 5.52% in July, the primary driver of the retail inflation uptick.

Linked evidence
NumberVerifiedHigh confidence

The Reserve Bank of India has projected CPI inflation for FY 2026-27 at 5.0%, with quarterly breakdowns of Q2 4.7%, Q3 5.9% and Q4 5.5%.

Linked evidence
ContextVerifiedHigh confidence

RBI's statutory inflation target band is 4% ±2 percentage points (2% to 6%), under which the August 4.82% print sits inside the range but trending toward the upper bound.

Linked evidence
NumberVerifiedHigh confidence

The top five CPI drivers in August 2026 were silver jewellery (+107.11%), ginger (+73.82%), onion (+48.27%), garlic (+43.60%) and gold/diamond/platinum jewellery (+35.53%).

Linked evidence
NumberVerifiedHigh confidence

WPI fuel and power basket inflation rose to 22.93% in August 2026 from 20.05% in July, led by mineral oils/petroleum products at +38.48% and crude petroleum & natural gas at +34.41%.

AnalysisPartially verifiedMedium confidence

SBI Research now advocates for a 25-bps rate hike in October 2026 and another 25-bps in December 2026, citing sticky WPI/CPI and Brent crude futures near $108/barrel.

Linked evidence
AnalysisVerifiedHigh confidence

India Ratings (Ind-Ra) expects wholesale inflation to rise to 10.2% in September 2026 and remain elevated through 2026 unless a permanent solution is found for the West Asia crisis.

AnalysisVerifiedHigh confidence

ICRA's Principal Economist Rahul Agrawal expects CPI food inflation to harden further in September-October 2026 on an unfavourable base and sequential hardening in items such as sugar, likely souring festive sentiment.

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