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TopOngoing4 days ago

NSE IPO's 23% discount to BSE on FY26 earnings is misleading, says Mint analysis

Mint's Mark to Market argues NSE's FY26 P/E of 43 vs BSE's 56 looks cheap only on paper β€” Q1FY27 profits, derivatives turnover and fee levers all favour BSE.

01 / What happened

What happened

NSE has set its 100% Offer for Sale at Rs 1,700-1,785, about 15% below the marketed Rs 2,000-2,100, valuing the exchange at up to Rs 4.42 lakh crore with no fresh capital raised.

NSE has finally fixed its IPO price band at Rs 1,700 to Rs 1,785, cutting the earlier marketed range of Rs 2,000-2,100 by about 15% after muted feedback from global roadshows. The issue is a 100% Offer for Sale worth about Rs 22,560 crore, so existing shareholders including Morgan Stanley, SBI, Temasek and CPPIB take all the proceeds and NSE itself raises nothing. On FY26 earnings the deal looks cheap at first glance β€” NSE at around 43 times earnings, a steep 23% discount to BSE at about 56 times.

Mint's Mark to Market column argues that discount is misleading because FY26 is already stale. In Q1FY27, the June quarter, NSE's net profit grew just 11% year-on-year while BSE's surged 65%, flipping the growth story. The derivatives engine tells the same tale: BSE's option premium turnover nearly doubled to Rs 18 trillion while NSE's grew only 14% to Rs 39 trillion, and the July-August trend widened further to 61% growth for BSE versus 7% for NSE.

Both exchanges still live on transaction charges β€” about 84% of NSE's and 78% of BSE's Q1 operating revenue β€” so volumes are everything. BSE has levers NSE lacks: its option charge at Rs 3,250 per crore is lower than NSE's Rs 3,550, leaving room to hike, and it charges nothing on futures, making it immune when futures volumes fall. NSE still holds 93% of cash market share, but BSE has climbed from near-zero to 28% in derivatives since FY23, with headroom left.

The global context makes NSE's 43x look stretched too. Peers like Nasdaq, London Stock Exchange, Japan Exchange Group, HKEX and ICE earn only 20-60% from transaction fees and trade at just 17-22 times CY26 earnings. Mint concludes that with such premium multiples, any further re-rating is tough β€” investors in this Offer for Sale should expect returns to hinge on future earnings growth, not the headline FY26 discount.

IPO price bandFinal 100% OFS band, cut ~15% from marketed Rs 2,000-2,100; ~5.5% equity; valuation up to Rs 4.42 lakh crore.
Rs 1,700-1,785
FY26 P/E discountMint: NSE ~43x vs BSE ~56x on FY26. Other outlets compute 42.88x vs 52.68x or 49x vs 67x depending on reference price/date.
43x vs 56x (23% discount)
Q1FY27 profit growthJune quarter YoY net profit growth reverses the FY26 discount narrative β€” BSE is now the faster grower.
NSE 11% vs BSE 65%
Option premium turnover Q1FY27BSE near-doubled YoY; NSE +14%. July-Aug growth: BSE 61% vs NSE 7%. Transaction charges = 84% NSE, 78% BSE of Q1 revenue.
BSE Rs 18T vs NSE Rs 39T
Background

Why the FY26 discount is misleading

The 23% discount uses FY26 as the base, but Q1FY27 already shows a role reversal. BSE's option premium turnover (Rs 18T) and profit growth (65%) are outpacing NSE (Rs 39T, 11%), and BSE still has fee-hike levers β€” lower option charges and free futures β€” while both exchanges remain 78-84% dependent on transaction fees. Global peers at 17-22x also frame NSE's 43x as premium, not cheap.

Timeline

Timeline

  • 15 Sep 2026 β€” Mint Mark to Market (Manish Joshi) calls NSE's FY26 discount to BSE misleading
  • 11 Sep 2026 β€” Business Today & Reuters report final OFS band Rs 1,700-1,785, down ~15% from Rs 2,000-2,100 marketed range
  • Q1FY27 (June quarter) β€” NSE net profit +11% YoY, BSE +65% YoY; BSE option premium Rs 18T (+~100%), NSE Rs 39T (+14%)
  • 19 Jun 2026 β€” Economic Times frames same discount at ~49x vs ~67x, highlighting how P/E varies by reference price and valuation
What Next

What to watch before the OFS

Track Q2FY27 derivatives turnover and whether BSE exercises its option-charge hike lever, NSE's ability to defend cash-market share (93%) as BSE's derivatives share pushes beyond 28%, and how FY27 earnings reset the P/E comparison β€” global peers at 17-22x set a ceiling for premium multiples.

02 / Why it matters

Why it matters for me

On FY26 numbers NSE looks 23% cheaper than BSE (43x vs 56x), but Q1FY27 growth flipped β€” NSE profit +11% vs BSE +65% β€” and BSE's option turnover growth is running far ahead.

Money

Financial-loss Β· Direct Β· High

Individual Investors Β· Ipo First Timers

Investors paying 43x FY26 earnings for NSE may overpay if they anchor to the 23% discount to BSE β€” Q1FY27 shows BSE is the faster grower, so returns will depend on future earnings, not headline cheapness.

Work

Regulatory-change Β· Indirect Β· Medium

Retail Traders Β· Finance Professionals

BSE's lower option charge (Rs 3,250 vs NSE Rs 3,550) and free futures pricing give it room to raise fees, which could shift trading costs for brokers and active traders.

Daily Life

Opportunity Β· Contextual Β· Medium

Individual Investors Β· Retail Traders

With BSE gaining derivatives share (28% vs near-zero in FY23) and NSE holding 93% cash share, investors get a clearer choice between a high-growth challenger and a dominant incumbent.

03 / The one thing

What to remember

The one thing
The headline discount is stale; IPO returns will hinge on future earnings, not FY26 maths.

NSE at 43x looks 23% cheaper than BSE β€” but Q1 profits (11% vs 65%) and derivatives growth tell the opposite story.

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Verified sources (5)

Evidence behind the crack
Reporting/Mint (Mark to Market)

NSE IPO's steep valuation discount to BSE based on FY26 earnings is misleading

β†—
PrimaryPublished Sep 15, 2026Accessed Sep 15, 2026
Reporting/The Economic Times

Growth over scale: NSE is priced at a discount to BSE

β†—
CorroboratingPublished Jun 19, 2026Accessed Sep 15, 2026
Reporting/Business Today

BSE shares drop 3% as NSE fixes IPO price band; here's why

β†—
CorroboratingPublished Sep 11, 2026Accessed Sep 15, 2026
Reporting/Reuters via Mint

NSE cuts IPO price range, giving up shot at India's top listing

β†—
CorroboratingPublished Sep 11, 2026Accessed Sep 15, 2026
Research/AInvest

NSE's IPO: A 43x Multiple on a Toll Whose Main Lane Got Narrower

β†—
ContextPublished Sep 13, 2026Accessed Sep 15, 2026

Claims and linked sources

10 claims
NumberVerifiedHigh confidence

In the June quarter (Q1FY27), NSE's net profit grew just 11% year-on-year while BSE's surged 65% β€” the opposite of the story implied by the FY26 discount.

NumberVerifiedHigh confidence

BSE's option premium turnover in Q1FY27 almost doubled year-on-year to Rs 18 trillion, while NSE's grew by just 14% to Rs 39 trillion; July-August trends continued in BSE's favour at 61% YoY growth versus 7% for NSE.

NumberVerifiedHigh confidence

Transaction charges remain the single largest revenue stream for both exchanges β€” nearly 84% of NSE's and 78% of BSE's Q1FY27 operating revenues β€” so both remain hostage to derivatives volumes.

FactVerifiedHigh confidence

BSE has charge levers NSE lacks: its option transaction charge is lower at Rs 3,250 per crore versus Rs 3,550 for NSE (room to hike), and BSE has kept futures charges free to win volume, so falling futures volumes hurt NSE's income while BSE is immune.

NumberVerifiedHigh confidence

NSE still commands a dominant 93% share of the cash market per Q1FY27 data, mirroring BSE's derivatives share climb from near-zero in FY23 to 28% in FY26 β€” ample room for BSE to erode NSE's position.

NumberVerifiedMedium confidence

Global peers such as Nasdaq, LSE, Japan Exchange Group, Hong Kong Exchange and ICE derive only 20-60% of revenue from transaction charges and yet trade at just 17-22x P/E on CY26 Bloomberg consensus β€” a large discount to NSE's ~43x.

FactVerifiedHigh confidence

The NSE issue is a 100% Offer for Sale β€” existing shareholders (Morgan Stanley, SBI, Temasek, CPPIB) receive the entire Rs 22,560 crore; NSE itself raises no fresh capital, so the valuation cannot price in any capital-deployment upside.

AnalysisVerifiedHigh confidence

Mint concludes further expansion in NSE's already-premium multiples will be tough, so investors in the offer-for-sale should expect stock-price gains to hinge on future earnings growth rather than the headline FY26 discount.

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